A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world's oil and gas passes on March 1, 2026. Two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on March 1, maritime security agencies said, as Iran pressed a second day of strikes in response to US-Israeli military strikes on Iran killing it's supreme leader. Credit - Sahar AL ATTAR—AFP or licensors
The war in Iran has killed hundreds of civilians, displacedhundreds of thousands more, sent globaloil pricesskyrocketing, created a political crisis for President Donald Trump and shaken the stability of the Gulf. But for one nation at least, the chaos has created opportunity.
Russia has emerged from the first week of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran as an early winner, seemingly able to profit from thesecondary economicand geopolitical effects of the war while others bear the costs.
Russia is one of the few nations that has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran. Moscow condemned the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran on February 28, calling it a "pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N. member state," in astatement from Russia's Foreign Affairs Ministryposted to Telegram. Vladimir Putin similarly criticized the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a "cynical murder."
Read More:Wars Like Ukraine and Iran Are Pushing Countries To Rethink How They Get Their Energy
But while it may stand to lose a powerful ally in the region, Moscow may also benefit in the short term, analysts say.
"What we're seeing now was not hard to predict," says Robert Person, nonresident Senior Fellow with the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), a nonpartisan think tank based in Philadelphia.
"Putin and his advisors have likely determined that war in Iran serves Russia's interests in the short term: higher energy prices, global distraction from a Ukraine war that Putin is not ready to settle, and America at risk of entrapment in another Middle Eastern quagmire," Person says.
"We don't know the degree to which any of this influenced the Trump Administration's decision-making, but I suspect they were of secondary consideration, if at all," he adds.
Here are the ways in which Russia is benefiting from the Iran war.
U.S. lifts restrictions on Russian oil
Russia has been under heavy sanctions from the U.S. and other allies since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including export controls, asset blockings, an oil price cap, and other restrictive economic pressures aimed at impeding its ability to fund its war.
President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% import tariff on India over its import of Russian oil in August, arguing that its continued purchase undermined the sanctions regime designed to pressure Putin to negotiate over the Ukraine war.
But in response torising gas pricesin the U.S., Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week issued a 30-day waiver on the tariff and is considering further lifting of sanctions.
"Yesterday, the Treasury agreed to let our allies in India start buying Russian oil that was already on the water," Bessent told Fox Business on Friday. "We may sanction other Russian oil."
In anX postThursday, Bessent added that the "deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea."
Despite this, Russian leadership claims that there is "a significant increase in demand" for Russian energy products, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, "in connection with the war in Iran."
Rising oil prices
A combination of heavy sanctions and low oil prices had given Russia's energy industry a poor outlook just a little over a week ago.
Oil and gas revenues fell from 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 to around 20% in 2025, as sanctions imposed by the international community aimed at limiting Moscow's ability to wage war in Ukraine took effect.
Now, due to the crunch on global oil supplies caused by the Iran war, oil prices have spiked and Russia is one of the few oil-producing nations that stands ready to fully benefit from it.
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It was forced to sell its oil at a discount of $10-$13 a barrel before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, now it is selling at a premium of $4-$5, according toReuters.
The combination of higher prices and the disruption to Gulf countries' ability to supply markets in Asia could provide a windfall to Moscow, just a year after its oil and gas revenuedroppedto its lowest levels since 2020.
Ukraine's Patriots
One knock-on effect of the Iran war is that it may directly impact Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian missiles, delivering a boost to Moscow.
Ukraine was already facing a shortage of U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, the expensive $4 million-a-piece munitions it uses to shoot down ballistic missiles and drones. Now the U.S. is running through those same missiles to defend against a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones that are targeting U.S. bases and Washington's allies in the Middle East.
European Union Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius saidFridaythat the outlook for Ukraine was "critical," and said the E.U. would need to "develop missile production in a very urgent and very rapid way."
"Americans will not be able to provide enough of those missiles for the Gulf countries, for their own army, and also for Ukraine," Kubilius said.
Ukraine's vulnerability to aerial attacks was underscored overnight on Saturday as Russia launched a barrage of at least 450 drones and 19 missiles in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to Ukrainian officials, killing at least 10 people.
An analysis by Agence France-Presse found that Russia fired more missiles in overnight strikes in February than in any month since the beginning of 2023. The agency found that Russia launched 288 missiles at Ukraine in February, an increase of about 113% compared to 135 missiles in January.
At the same time as his country is struggling to defend itself, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country would assist the Gulf in taking down Iranian drones by providing some of its much cheaper, homegrown drone-interception technology.
"We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection," against Iran's drone systems, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday on X. Ukrainian advisers and systems would shortly be on their way to the Persian Gulf region, Zelensky said, because "Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security."
Russia has used Iranian-made Shahed drones to devastating effect against Ukraine over the last few years. Mostly out of necessity, Ukraine developed cheap interceptor drones known as the Sting system, which are operated by pilots who can guide them to crash into Shahed drones, forcing them to explode.
'Degrading America's projection of power'
Several news outlets, including the WashingtonPostand theAssociated Press, have reported that Russia has shared targeting intelligence on the U.S. military with Iran and is directing Iran on what to do with the information.
ThePost, citing officials familiar with intelligence on the matter, said the intelligence included the locations of American warships, aircraft and other military assets.
White House officials have not denied that Russia is providing intelligence to Iran, but they have downplayed the country's influence and its ability to harm military operations.
When asked by CBS News about the reports and how Russian information has aided Iran in targeting U.S. bases across the Middle East, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said: "No one's putting us in danger".
"We mitigate it as we need to," the Pentagon chief continued. "Our commanders factor all of this, but the only ones that need to be worried right now are Iranians that think they're going to live."
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump snapped at Fox News reporter Peter Doocy when he asked about Russia's reported role in helping Iran.
"I have a lot of respect for you, you've always been very nice to me," Trump told Doocy. "What a stupid question that is to be asking at this time. We're talking about something else."
"Recent reports that Russia has provided Iran with intelligence used to target American forces in the region are consistent with the latter effort: anything to complicate or degrade America's projection of power shifts the relative geopolitical balance in Moscow's favor," Person says.
Contact usatletters@time.com.
A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world's oil and gas...
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