Our favorite NFL futures wagers: Best bets for Super Bowl, season win totals, MVP and more Michael FiddleSeptember 3, 2025 at 7:49 AM 0 The 202526 NFL season is here, as the Philadelphia Eagles (8.5, 47.5 at BetMGM) are set to host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday evening.
- - Our favorite NFL futures wagers: Best bets for Super Bowl, season win totals, MVP and more
Michael FiddleSeptember 3, 2025 at 7:49 AM
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The 2025-26 NFL season is here, as the Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 47.5 at BetMGM) are set to host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday evening. We've covered a ton of potential futures wagers to make this offseason on this home page, but two of our NFL handicappers have narrowed their focus to their favorite wagers in several categories.
Matt Russell and Michael Fiddle are here to provide you with their favorite Super Bowl, over/under, MVP and divisional wagers.
Best bet to win Super Bowl 60
San Francisco 49ers (20-1)
Fiddle: The best value bet on the Super Bowl futures board is the 49ers to win it all. They enter this season healthy after injuries derailed their title chances last year. In fact, their fourth-place finish in the division due to those injuries creates a significant schedule advantage this season.
In what are called "standings-based games" by the schedule makers, the 49ers will face the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, their division opponents will play the rest of the NFC East (Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders), AFC North (Ravens, Steelers, Bengals) and NFC North (Lions, Vikings, Packers).
The defense gets two major boosts with the drafting of high-level defensive end prospect Mykel Williams in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft and the return of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. I believe this 49ers team, with the NFL's easiest schedule based on opponent win totals, could secure the No. 1in the NFC, earn a bye and advance to the Super Bowl, which is being played in San Francisco.
Additionally, the trade for Brian Robinson Jr. to bolster the backfield behind Christian McCaffrey, at the cost of a draft pick for next season, shows this team is serious about competing for the Lombardi Trophy. I estimate these odds closer to 14-1 and see clear value in betting numbers widely available above this figure.
Best conference futures bet
The Cowboys also have a scheduling advantage to lean on. They open the season in Philadelphia against the Eagles, and get them at the perfect time as both of their star WRs, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, have been injured and missing time throughout training camp. The third-place finish last year aligns Dallas with standings-based games against the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals.
Russell: Fiddle stole mine! He's right, the 49ers have the best conceptual path to the Super Bowl relative to their odds, so, I'll take one for the team, tackling the AFC.
Toppling the Kansas City Chiefs and winning the top seed in the AFC playoffs requires the same thing — a lot of wins. While the Broncos' schedule isn't as comfy as San Francisco's, this handicap is more about a loaded roster on both sides of the ball. There's a real possibility that, by late January, we're reflecting on a team that had no real holes.
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While that sounds like a massive jump from the perception of Denver now, think about the leap they made from the beginning of last season to halftime of their playoff game in Buffalo.
The Sean Payton-Bo Nix combo has had a full offseason, and there's certainty in the receiving group. It would be almost impossible to not have a better run game behind what is otherwise a highly-rated offensive line.
Defensively, they added to a secondary led by Patrick Surtain with long-time 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga, and a first-round pick in CB Jahdae Barron. All of whom get the benefit of a front seven that has four players who combined for almost 40 sacks, and added Hufanga's teammate, Dre Greenlaw.
The Chiefs will have to not run through the AFC one of these years, and the Broncos already showed last season that they can match up with Kansas City on the field.
Favorite season win total bets
Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 wins (-120)
Russell: Gone are the days where we sit around all August talking about the loaded Chargers' roster, and how they should be the ones who give the Chiefs a run. Instead, Kansas City is still a problem, the Broncos might be loaded, the Raiders should be much-improved, and you can count on one hand the number of blue-chip players in their prime left on the Los Angeles depth chart.
As always, there's no discernible home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, and every one of their road trips is to the type of team that they should beat on paper — Giants, Dolphins, Jaguars and Titans — but when you apply the home-field advantage, they become near-pick'ems.
Ten wins should get you into the playoffs, but I don't have the Chargers as a playoff team, and this win total might be this high just out of respect for Jim Harbaugh and his staff.
Dallas Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins (+110)
Fiddle: A few weeks ago, I released an article previewing my three favorite NFL win totals. While I still like all of them, some numbers have shifted and the market has influenced these odds. Let me add one more: the Dallas Cowboys over 7.5 wins is a great buy-low spot.
Amidst the drama and the Micah Parsons trade, the team adds a defensive tackle willing to play now instead of hold out. They have improved the offense with the addition of wide receiver George Pickens and a more competent running back room. Last year was injury riddled, but the Cowboys of 2023 had a better offense than the Bengals of 2024, a frequently-comped team to Dallas that went 9-8 last season.
[Week 1 betting trends to know | Helpful tips for new bettors ]
The Cowboys also have a scheduling advantage to lean on. They open the season in Philadelphia against the Eagles, and get them at the perfect time as both of their star WRs, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, have been injured and missing time throughout training camp. The third-place finish last year aligns Dallas with standing-based games against the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals.
Given the Week 1 matchup against the Eagles and my inclination to also play some of the +800 division odds, I prefer to bet half a unit now and another half unit if they lose Week 1 at better odds.
Timing this market is key: take a stab at the division and win total now, and be ready to revisit the win total after the outcome of Thursday night's game.
Division bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC North (-110)
Fiddle: When picking one division winner across the NFL, the Bucs are the obvious choice for me. It comes down to offensive continuity, defensive improvement and a weak division leading to an easy schedule. Tampa Bay had a top-five offense in points per game and total yards last year, averaging 399.5 yards per game and 29.5 points per game in 2024. They added a first-round offensive lineman while keeping all the integral parts intact. Although they lost their offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who became the Jaguars' head coach, Josh Grizzard now takes over the helm. He was with the team last year as the passing game coordinator.
The Buccaneers defense added Haason Reddick this season in free agency after he had a tumultuous year with the New York Jets. Reddick now has a contract and a full offseason to work with his teammates. The Bucs defense is already led by veterans Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. and now features playmakers at every level. They showed growth in forcing turnovers last season, and Reddick's ability to bolster the pass rush alongside Yaya Diaby should only create more of those opportunities.
Lastly, the Bucs face the 10th-easiest schedule based on projected win totals, largely due to a weak division. The Saints are in salary cap trouble and starting Spencer Rattler after Derek Carr's abrupt retirement. The Falcons and Panthers are looking to grow under the leadership of young quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Bryce Young, respectively. However, I do not expect these hopeful prospects to take the divisional throne from Baker Mayfield, who is playing the best football of his career.
Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South (+375)
Russell: As much as I'm tempted to confuse things by taking the Panthers, I'll put my other viable divisional long shot here.
The South divisions are where long shots can come to fruition because even the allegedly good teams barely finish above .500, as was the case for the Texans. Houston's revamping the offensive line, but there's no guarantee that works. Without the hard running of Joe Mixon — mostly in the first half of the season, when they played Indianapolis twice (261 total rush yards) — the 10-7 Texans might not have edged the 8-9 Colts for the division.
That was a Colts team that missed Jonathan Taylor for three games, and which kept toggling between Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson at quarterback. You may not think much of QB Daniel Jones, but without the New York pressure, and a far better offensive line in front of him than he ever had with the Giants, he's an improvement on what the Colts had last season. Given an actual of improvement of just two wins puts Indy at 10, it's not out the realm of possibility that they take their turn stealing the AFC South.
MVP value bets
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (18-1)
Russell: We need stats and wins for MVP candidacy.
The Eagles should supply that as they're favored to win 12 games and take the NFC East.
Hurts flirted with 4,000 passing yards in 2022 and 2023, but Saquon Barkley hogged all the yards from scrimmage last year, and Hurts' arm was largely unnecessary. Given that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson didn't crack 4,000 passing yards in their MVP-winning campaigns, and Hurts can still run for over 500 yards and a truck load of touchdowns, the stats should be there for a run at MVP.
With all the criteria met, it just comes down to voter preference, but for us, the math is simple — 18-to-1 is more valuable than the single-digit odds assigned to the other contenders.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love (18-1)
Fiddle: The NFL MVP has become almost exclusively a QB award, as all but one winner since 2007 played that position. As detailed in my Packers-specific article, the Packers are favored in their first eight games of the NFL season, which I think makes them a prime team to target for finding value in regular-season NFL futures markets.
If the betting market correctly predicts a very strong start for the Packers, Love will be near the top of the MVP leaderboard by midseason. Then, we can consider revisiting around Week 9 and betting on another contender for a chance to arbitrage the award. The AFC features juggernaut matchups between the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals, whose quarterbacks are the top four most likely contenders. Betting on Love now can buy time as the AFC weeds itself out.
Play Love to win MVP north of 20-1 odds now; I will write an article at the midseason point reassessing this market, with the perspective of already holding a Love ticket.
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Source: "AOL Sports"
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Our favorite NFL futures wagers: Best bets for Super Bowl, season win totals, MVP and more Michael FiddleSeptember...
